ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Armed Taliban insurgents seized control of the main town in Pakistan's Swat valley, sending thousands of residents fleeing in advance of a possible showdown between the Islamic militants and the army that could help decide the future of nuclear-armed Pakistan.
"You may say the city has fallen to the Taliban," school principal Zia-ud-Din Yusufzai told McClatchy Newspapers by phone, as he followed the advice of Pakistani authorities and fled the valley's main town of Mingora on Tuesday. "Not everyone could leave. Those who stay will be hostage (to the Taliban)."
"Pray for Swat," implored Yusufzai, driving south with his wife and three children toward safety and an uncertain future.
Pakistan's army has proved to be ill equipped and ill trained, particularly to fight an Islamist insurgency with which many military officers sympathize, but the militants' advance into Swat and Buner poses an unparalleled threat to Zardari's government and to the U.S. battle against al-Qaida and the Taliban.
The militants are drawing closer to some of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and other military facilities. Swat and Buner also are close to the huge Tarbela dam and to two important highways, one of which is a main supply route for U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan and the link between Islamabad, the capital, and Peshawar, a city of about 2 million and the capital of the North West Frontier Province.
The fighting in Swat also could ignite Pakistan's tribal area along the Afghan border, which already is mostly in the hands of the al-Qaida-linked Taliban. The nightmare scenario is that a civil war in Swat could trigger a sympathetic uprising from Islamic extremist groups in Punjab province, the heart of Pakistan, and in Islamabad.
It isn't clear whether the army can retake Swat, where the Taliban are well supplied and entrenched. Two Pakistani army offensives in the valley have failed in the past 18 months, and any new operation would likely be much larger, with the associated risk of turning more of the population against the army and the government.
One factor has turned in favor of a military operation in Swat: a shift in Pakistani public opinion.
Analysts said that the failed peace deal in Swat has demonstrated to the population o Pakistan that the militants aren't interested in a negotiated settlement or in fulfilling their stated demand for Islamic law. They never disarmed and disbanded as required by the accord, instead invading the Buner district last month, and this week, even a hard-line religious group, Sunni Tehreek, held an anti-Taliban march through Islamabad.
"This is the first time that the Pakistani nation has identified that Talibanization is a threat," said Asad Munir, a former head of military intelligence for northwest Pakistan. "If we say that this is 'our war,' then we can win it. (But) If the nation is not behind the army, then the army cannot fight."
Those who had private vehicles or could afford public transport abandoned their homes. The provincial government, appealing for emergency assistance, estimated that 500,000 people would leave Swat to become refugees in their own country.
On Monday night, intense firefights between security forces and Taliban had left residents cowering in their homes. According to Shaukat Saleem, a human rights activist based in Mingora, 21 civilians died after they were caught in the crossfire. Others gave lower figures. There was no official word on the casualties.
"The streets are empty. I haven't seen any security forces today, just the Taliban patrolling in great strength," said Saleem, speaking by phone from Mingora, adding that he'd decided to stay. "I cannot abandon my people."
Some 46 paramilitary soldiers remain surrounded by Taliban at the town's electrical grid station. While the army denied that Mingora was in the hands of the Taliban, a spokesman based in the town, Maj. Nasir Khan, admitted that the militants were present in "outlying areas."
"Our purpose is to eliminate them (the Taliban)," Khan said. "They don't want Islamic Sharia (law). They want to establish their reign of terror."
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