Korean War II Brewing...??

B. B. Bell, General, US Army and native Tennessean, retired in 2008 following 39 years of military service. He graduated from the University of Chattanooga in 1969 with a degree in Business Administration.  After graduation, General Bell was commissioned in the Army as a participant in the University's ROTC program and designated a Distinguished Military Graduate.  He served fifteen years deployed overseas during both peace and war times.

As a two star general, he commanded the Army's Armor Center at Fort Knox, Kentucky, and later, as a three star general, he commanded the Army's Third Corps, headquartered at Fort Hood, Texas.

As a four star general, General Bell commanded the US Army in Europe, as well as NATO's Land Component Headquarters in Heidelberg, Germany.

Subsequently he served as the Commander of US Forces in Korea, as well as commander of all Allied forces in Korea. General Bell is a veteran of the Iraq Desert Storm Campaign where he served as General Norman Schwarzkopf's Executive Officer, as well as the Balkans Campaigns in southern Europe.  

So when he writes that the Korean Peninsula is ready to erupt into a full fledged shooting war, one should probably listen.

His scenario, published as a op-ed in the Chattanoogon, on April 21, 2010:

“Listen up everyone, we have one brewing over our shoulder right now that could drag us into another major war, whether we like it or not.

The United States is properly committed to a defense alliance with South Korea wherein we pledge to lead a war against north Korea, should north Korea attack South Korea. Here's the situation -- it's very possible north Korea has already attacked the South and as soon as everyone figures it out, we could be in a hot and lethal war again on the Korean peninsula.

Over the last 10 years, there have been three major naval engagements between the two Korea's along their western sea border area. In one of these engagements in 2002, six South Korean sailors were killed and a South Korean patrol board was sunk.

Just a month ago on March 26 of this year, things got worse, a lot worse. While patrolling the west sea border between the Korea's, the South Korean frigate, Cheonan, "mysteriously" and instantly was blown in half during the night, with the loss of 46 crew members of 104 on board. The South Koreans have salvaged most of the ship and are now examining its remains in dry dock. Already it is clear that there was an external explosion that cut the ship in half and caused it to sink almost immediately, with the large loss of life.

There are two plausible explanations for this disaster.

 

The first is that the Cheonan ran up against an old sea mine which had come loose from its moorings dating back to the Korean War. If this proves to have been the case, then this incident, while tragic, will be placed in the history books and South Korea will move on.

The other explanation is that the ship was deliberately ambushed by a north Korean submarine. Given the state of relations between the two Korea's, this is very possible, if not probable. The forensics should tell the tale within the next several days or weeks.

If the South Koreans determine their ship was ambushed and catastrophically sunk by a torpedo from a north Korean submarine with the loss of 46 of their sailors, there will almost assuredly be a quick and very decisive South Korean retaliatory strike. This whole process could escalate into a large scale war, before the generals, admirals and political leaders figure out what is happening around them. If a war does break out, we are in it for keeps meaning three wars at one time. It is essential that the United States work closely with its ally, the South Koreans, to determine the facts surrounding this naval catastrophe and assist them in planning and executing an appropriate response should it be determined that north Korea is the culprit.”

Well, South Korea is has pretty much decided it was the second scenario.

“South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young has suggested a torpedo attack as the most likely cause of the sinking of the corvette Cheonan on March 26, the New York Times has reported on 25 April 2010.

 

46 South Korean sailors died in the sinking.

The Sinking of the Cheonan

Suspicion has been growing that Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo exploding before impact, causing a ‘bubble jet’ which broke the ship in two. Head of the investigation Yoon Duk-yong, told the New York Times that the ship was likely sunk “by a non-contact explosion, rather than a contact explosion,” saying that there was an absence on the wreck of damage normally left when a ship suffered a direct hit. “A bubble jet caused by a heavy torpedo is thought to be the most likely thing to be blamed, but various other possibilities are also under review,” said Mr. Kim.

The region in the Yellow Sea in which the Cheonan sank has been the scene of a number of skirmishes between North and South. In 1999, a confrontation left 17 North Koreans dead, while in 2002 four South Korean sailors and at least 30 North Koreans died. During the ‘Sunshine Policy’ days of 1998 – 2008 South Korea was hesitant before pointing the finger at the North on any matter likely to increase tensions. Lately however, attitudes have hardened in Seoul under President Lee Myung-bak.”

 

Meanwhile, the Obama administrations chief diplomat, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Friday that she hoped there would be "no miscalculation" that could spark a new war between North and South Korea.

"I hope that there is no talk of war, there is no action or miscalculation that could provoke a response that might lead to conflict that is not in anyone's interests," the chief US diplomat told reporters.

Clinton had been asked to comment on North Korea's seizing South Korean-owned assets at a mountain resort and warning both sides were on the brink of war over the sinking of a warship on their disputed border.

"We have said time and time again that North Koreans should not engage in provocative actions and that they should return to the six-party talks," she said, referring to the talks for the de-nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and other matters.